Drought Dynamics in Antalya Province over the Last 34 Years: Evaluation of SPI Time Series with CHIRPS Data
Keywords:
Drought, Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Climate Change, Google Earth Engine (GEE), CHIRPS, AntalyaAbstract
The province of Antalya is located in the Mediterranean region of Turkiye and faces an increased risk of drought due to climate change. The objective of this study is to analyse the drought dynamics of the province of Antalya for the period 1990–2024. The analyses are based on 3-, 6-, and 12-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) time series calculated using CHIRPS satellite rainfall data on the Google Earth Engine (GEE) cloud platform. The results indicate that the region has undergone distinct dry and wet cycles over the past 34 years. Frequent occurrences of moderate droughts have been documented in the region. It is also noteworthy that no events classified as extremely dry have been observed in the region on a 12-month time scale. The findings of this study indicate that Antalya is subject to moderate to severe drought conditions, thereby validating the efficacy of GEE and CHIRPS data in facilitating reliable drought analysis in regions characterised by incomplete data coverage. The findings provide a contemporary scientific basis for the management of water resources at the regional level, as well as for the development of strategies to mitigate the effects of drought.
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